What if Japan attacked Russia

Discuss the "What If's" of historical events.

Moderators: Loki, robroydude, exposno1, Parrot, Quasigriz, NickDupree, nmoore63, Spinny Spamkiller

What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby YSH » Sat Aug 23, 2008 7:21 am

In WWII the Russian army had enormous loses against the Germans, but the Germans never managed to knock out Russian production, it was just to far inland to reach. So what if Japan, instead of going for the European colonial possesions and the U.S., attacked Russia near Vladivostok. The Russians then would need to fight a two-front war, when there already heaving issues with managing one front. I don't think Stalin would have won that war, effictively making all German resources available for beating the British, and there was no Pearl Harbour, so the U.S. would probably not be involved.

I think i'd be speaking German right now if this happened...
User avatar
YSH
Contributing Member
 
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 12:17 pm
Location: the Netherlands

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby larry1617 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 4:24 pm

That is a very interesting idea, considering it would be the Germans, Russians, U.S, and Britain would all have had a two front war history may have been drastically changed if that ,in fact did happen. Might I also add the U.S. were the people in modern time to win a two front war.
"So let us regard this as settled: what is morally wrong can never be advantageous, even when it enables you to make some gain that you believe to be to your advantage. The mere act of believing that some wrongful course of action constitutes an advantage is pernicious." ~Marcus Tullius Cicero
User avatar
larry1617
Senior Member
 
Posts: 514
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 2:52 pm
Location: Arroyo Grande, CA

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Cid » Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:55 pm

Why didn't they? Well probably because they were pretty heavy into China. While a lot of Soviet production was far from the Germans, it wasn't necessarily close to the Japanese, and then of course there's the continental winter in the Asian steppe....Um, just trust the Sicilian.
“Sometimes the truth is arrived at by adding all the little lies together and deducting them from the totality of what is known.”

~Terry Pratchett, Going Postal
User avatar
Cid
Hetairoi
 
Posts: 5337
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:11 pm
Location: "Appalacha" Apparently

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Kaizen » Sun Sep 21, 2008 5:37 pm

I'm not confident in the accuracy of my comment but I remember a History Channel program about Soviet and Japanese relations during the Second World War some years ago. According to my memory of the program, Japanese armies did cross from Manchuria to Soviet territory before the German invasion began, it might have been in 1940 or 1939, I can't remember the date. They were soundly defeated, then the Japanese government arranged for a treaty of a sort to prevent fighting from breaking out again and some sort of diplomatic relationship.

In another post (viewtopic.php?f=25&t=11968), exposno1 talked about how the Emperor or some other part of the government was trying to negotiate a peace with the Allies through the Soviets whom at the time were not involved in the Asian War. It might have been related somehow to this "treaty" that I hope I remember right.

So if my memory of the program is right, and if such a program actually existed, the Japanese army did attack the Soviet Union during the Second World War but before the German invasion. Of course, these are big "if"s and I wouldn't stake anything on it. But I hope it will help.
Kaizen
New Member
 
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 12:14 am

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby ilya » Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:16 am

I would like to point out that Japan was always on Soviet Union's mind. USSR throughout the war always kept many divisions on the east, specifically to counter Japanese threat. In most desperate hour, during battle for Moscow in fall 1941 several of them were pulled out to fight Germans, after Stalin was completely assured that Japan would not attack during this period.
Many people would sooner die than think. In fact they do. - B. Russell
User avatar
ilya
Contributing Member
 
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:19 am
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Lonestar » Tue Sep 30, 2008 1:11 pm

YSH wrote:In WWII the Russian army had enormous loses against the Germans, but the Germans never managed to knock out Russian production, it was just to far inland to reach. So what if Japan, instead of going for the European colonial possesions and the U.S., attacked Russia near Vladivostok. The Russians then would need to fight a two-front war, when there already heaving issues with managing one front. I don't think Stalin would have won that war, effictively making all German resources available for beating the British, and there was no Pearl Harbour, so the U.S. would probably not be involved.

I think i'd be speaking German right now if this happened...


Unfortunately, you are really underestimating how entangled Japan was in China. Or that the Russians(under a young whippersnapper named Zhukov) had stomped the heck out of them before WW2. Or that Russia maintained a large amount of forces in the Far East all the way up to the Battle of Moscow.

So, let's say Japan attacks Russia. Now what? Are they going to win? No, the Russian Army is much more mechanized than the Japanese military. All they got is some territory in the Far East(assuming they can scrounge the troops for an occupation) that is economically worthless and Russia pissed off at them.
Alright Kiff, let's show them what a bloated, runaway defense budget can do!-Zap Branigan
That being said SIX people hardly constitutes the will of Puerto Rico.....I could get together 6 people to protest for the independence of my butt. -nmoore
User avatar
Lonestar
Nomarch
 
Posts: 2147
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:17 pm
Location: Fake Virginia. It's nicer than Real Virginia.

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby emjoi » Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:56 pm

Of course this assumes Japan wanted to conquer and hold vast regions of freezing empty Siberia. They might nibble at the corners, an the Russians could just let them have the territory until the Germans were defeated.
emjoi
Contributing Member
 
Posts: 98
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:00 pm

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Lonestar » Fri Oct 17, 2008 4:03 am

emjoi wrote:Of course this assumes Japan wanted to conquer and hold vast regions of freezing empty Siberia. They might nibble at the corners, an the Russians could just let them have the territory until the Germans were defeated.


Well, yeah, historically the Japanese did want to occupy Siberia.
Alright Kiff, let's show them what a bloated, runaway defense budget can do!-Zap Branigan
That being said SIX people hardly constitutes the will of Puerto Rico.....I could get together 6 people to protest for the independence of my butt. -nmoore
User avatar
Lonestar
Nomarch
 
Posts: 2147
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:17 pm
Location: Fake Virginia. It's nicer than Real Virginia.

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby bigred » Fri Oct 31, 2008 8:02 pm

wasn't there a Japanese sub that sank a Russian sub before WWII...I remember hearing something to that effect on the history channel.

The Japanese were not at a strategical position to attack Russia, they would of had to trek through all of china where they would of met resistance...not very harsh resistance but it would of been a slow process or they would of had to trek across the siberian tundra for a long long time. It would not of been practical for them to do this. But if they would of suceeded at taking down moscow with the germans than we might of been speaking german right now.

That is a very improviable yet scary scenerio.
“I have nothing to ask but that you would remove to the other side, that you may not, by intercepting the sunshine, take from me what you cannot give”- Diogenes response to Alexander the Great when offered anything he wished.
User avatar
bigred
New Member
 
Posts: 29
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 3:35 am

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Lonestar » Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:37 pm

bigred wrote:wasn't there a Japanese sub that sank a Russian sub before WWII...I remember hearing something to that effect on the history channel.

The Japanese were not at a strategical position to attack Russia, they would of had to trek through all of china where they would of met resistance...not very harsh resistance but it would of been a slow process or they would of had to trek across the siberian tundra for a long long time. It would not of been practical for them to do this. But if they would of suceeded at taking down moscow with the germans than we might of been speaking german right now.

That is a very improviable yet scary scenerio.


I...I honestly don't think you know your geography? Why would Japan have to "trek all through China" to get to Russia? Heck, during the Allied Intervention in the Russian Civil War the Japanese pushed all the way out to Lake Baikal...and this was without Manchukuo as a launch point.

The point I was trying to make is that the conflict in China was a black hole of IJA personnel...think of it as Iraq times a thousand. While it's possible the Japanese could have marched in and grabbed a good chunk of Far East Russia, they would never have the manpower to make good their attack.
Alright Kiff, let's show them what a bloated, runaway defense budget can do!-Zap Branigan
That being said SIX people hardly constitutes the will of Puerto Rico.....I could get together 6 people to protest for the independence of my butt. -nmoore
User avatar
Lonestar
Nomarch
 
Posts: 2147
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:17 pm
Location: Fake Virginia. It's nicer than Real Virginia.

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby dbhstockton » Mon Feb 09, 2009 2:06 pm

Interesting topic. My thoughts:

Remember, the Japanese already had control of Manchuria and Korea decades before the war. They had little to gain from attacking Russia. Perhaps, if WWII was a typical 19th-century balance-of-power war, it would have been a good geo-political bargaining chip to have Vladivostok, but WWII was all-or-nothing. Japan's whole motive for expansion was to wrest control of China and Southeast Asia from European imperialist powers. Once and for all. Siberia was in the wrong direction, especially if you consider the vastness of the territory they controlled at their height. Compare the resources of China or Indonesia to Siberia, or the strategic value of taking Singapore from the British - which is a more compelling place to conquer?

What is interesting to me is to consider what might have happened if they had waited longer to attack Pearl Harbor, or had not attacked at all. Maybe they could have subjugated Australia and consolidated their hold on China. Maybe even go after India. Ghengis Khan had conquered and held a comparably-scaled empire. Who knows.
If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be. --Thomas Jefferson
User avatar
dbhstockton
Contributing Member
 
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2009 12:56 pm

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Eustace » Tue Feb 24, 2009 3:43 pm

Well, yes, but didn't the Mongols do that by letting the locals run things while they got drunk and decided which proto - nation to knock off next?
How far would you go for an idea? Paul Kelly's 'Rising Star, available from Amazon
User avatar
Eustace
Nomarch
 
Posts: 1689
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 12:03 pm
Location: Northern England

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby larry1617 » Tue Feb 24, 2009 4:24 pm

Well, the Japanese did develop an A bomb in the war and tested it. It may seem crazy, but I guess I am a pesi-optimist
"So let us regard this as settled: what is morally wrong can never be advantageous, even when it enables you to make some gain that you believe to be to your advantage. The mere act of believing that some wrongful course of action constitutes an advantage is pernicious." ~Marcus Tullius Cicero
User avatar
larry1617
Senior Member
 
Posts: 514
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 2:52 pm
Location: Arroyo Grande, CA

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby Lonestar » Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:57 pm

larry1617 wrote:Well, the Japanese did develop an A bomb in the war and tested it. It may seem crazy, but I guess I am a pesi-optimist


No, they didn't.
Alright Kiff, let's show them what a bloated, runaway defense budget can do!-Zap Branigan
That being said SIX people hardly constitutes the will of Puerto Rico.....I could get together 6 people to protest for the independence of my butt. -nmoore
User avatar
Lonestar
Nomarch
 
Posts: 2147
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:17 pm
Location: Fake Virginia. It's nicer than Real Virginia.

Re: What if Japan attacked Russia

Postby T2theC » Fri Feb 27, 2009 4:20 am

Lonestar wrote:
larry1617 wrote:Well, the Japanese did develop an A bomb in the war and tested it. It may seem crazy, but I guess I am a pesi-optimist


No, they didn't.


Where does larry1617 get this stuff from?
http://www.bingethinkinghistory.com

Some things in life are better when they are simple. You are not one of them.
User avatar
T2theC
Nomarch
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:44 am
Location: London, Blighty

Next

Return to Alternative History

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest