Even at 5%/yr improvement, you'll improve 25x in 65 years. Given that about 75% of the energy in a gallon of gasoline is unusable in an ICE, you really only need a 6-7 fold improvement in battery technology, not 25x. So 40 years instead of 65 years.
5% per year? That's ALL? Such a deal...perhaps those conspiracy theorists were right all along.
Show me Moore's law has anything to do with in batteries and I'll show you cooked data (and other cooked things behind them).
After all, if Moore's law applied to propellers, light bulbs, ICE's, etc., we'd be home free, after all, right? Wait, that can't be right...
Moore's "law" is descriptive, not predictive, of a process with many modes of incremental change. Battery technology today does not resemble this definition. It is a field marked by a few hard-won breakthroughs and a lot of blathering fairy dust, like any healthy area of important scientific and engineering development.
_________________ _______ "You do not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed"
As if the market needed another bizarro catalyst to ramp even higher courtesy of an even more pronounced drop in corporate earnings courtesy of soaring energy costs, that is just what it is about to get following news of further deterioration in the Nash equilibrium in Iran, where on one hand we learn that IAEA just pronounced Iran nuclear talks a failure (this is bad), and on the other Press TV reports that the Iran army just started a 4 day air defense exercise in a 190,000 square kilometer area in southern Iran (this is just as bad). The escalation "ball" is now in the Western court. And if Iraq is any indication, after IAEA talks "failure" (no matter how grossly manipulated by the media), the aftermath is usually always one and the same...
Iran air defense drills + blocking of IAEA inspectors = bullish news for $5 gas.
I laughed out loud last night when I saw some TV talking heads discussing gasoline prices. It seemed like a comedy sketch as one lie after another came spilling out like dominos all in a row. I fully expected someone to appear from off screen and plant a pie in their faces.
"Obama is doing everything he can to keep gas prices low."
"For every 50 cent rise in gasoline prices the cost of consumer goods is affected."
It struck me as odd that I have a TV remote with about a hundred buttons but not a single one lets me trigger an ejection seat. I would really enjoy launching talking heads into the air from the comfort of my own home.
_________________ Fugitive from the law of averages
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 7:29 pm Posts: 4297 Location: The Big Island, Hawaii
You guys are right, batteries will never, ever get any better The plateau of all human achievement in battery technology happened on February 21, 2012. All downhill from here!
When smart people say that something won't happen (especially when not prohibited by the laws of physics), it probably will.
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." --Lord Kelvin
Pick a rate of annual battery improvements, 1%, 2%, whatever, and the math will give the time to gas parity.
Battery technology will certainly continue to improve but the rate at which a technology improves is dependent on the underlying physics of the technology not Moore's law.
Even in the case of semiconductors Moore's Law is dependent on the underlying physics. The diffraction limit of light and the density of atoms present fundamental limits....At least until you can think up a new trick.
Why not apply "Moore's Law" to fuel efficiency ?
Lets say, the fleet currently gets 25 mpg on average and with better computer engine management we expect fuel efficiency to double every 18 months.
In a decade you will be able to circumnavigate the planet on a single tank of gas !
The fact that so many are so deeply concerned about the hardships imposed by a 50% increase in a single commodity is really the most interesting thing about this issue.
It's not that this issue isn't really serious to most folks (on the contrary!). It's that these sorts of shocks don't feed remarkably aggressive initiatives to change resource use, energy technology, etc.
Americans' chances of being injured or killed by a terrorist in their lifetime is infinitesimally as significant as driving to work everyday, hiking in the woods once a week, or other very normal activities we experience every day without a second thought. You are likely to experience being killed in a vehicle accident over two dozen times in your life before you are likely to be killed by a terrorist. Yet we invest over a trillion dollars a year in anti-terrorism efforts that are completely free of accountability.. That means there is no compass for how to effectively use dollars to prevent terrorism deaths in the US.
I think this kind of quandry of irrational choices makes it unlikely to make rational choices regarding an energy policy, both personal and national, that isn't completely driven from immediate circumstances (translation: pain).
A lot of people are really happy about this reality:
"By Chilton’s calculation, if you drive a car like a Honda Civic, you’re paying $7.30 more than you should every time you fill up — to Wall Street speculators. If your car is a Ford Explorer you’re paying an extra $10.41. For a Ford F150, he says owners pay an additional $14.56 per fill up -or more than $750 a year."
Chilton got part of the equation right.
He just missed a few zillion other things that will increase in price as well. A can of bean, a pair of jeans, a new TV . . . well, everything we buy. These things don't just magically appear in our stores, they get there by truck. There's all kinds of estimates out there that illustrate how a rise in gas prices effects other products and what kind of additional dent that puts in our pocketbooks.
So the real cost to consumers is very broad and that information is available to all. Depending upon where you get your news you may or may not be provided this extra little tidbit of information.
_________________ Fugitive from the law of averages
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