Iranian Nuclear Progress?

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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:40 pm

I would say the whole Iran thing is posturing and positioning on the way to a negotiation at some point.

China is going to make everybody play nice, including Israel who want to expand business with China.


Iran can close the straights for a short period, but that will pretty much be the end of their military as they know it, and possibly the regime, so they aren't going to do that.

This is saber rattling on all sides. Nobody has a strategic interest in going to all out war and Israel is always chirping that they are going to do something, but it's bullshit.

Iran is nowhere near threatening Israel with a nuke and even if they were, Israel is going to have to live with it, because they cannot afford, just economically, to piss the Russians and the Chinese off like that, as they are both Israeli customers. Nor can the IDF really have much effect on the situation at that range, with the forces they have.

Iran is acting tough, but with Syria starting to crumble they are actually in weak position at the moment.. Weaker the position, the more saber rattling you get.

Obama isn't going to start a major war right now.
Last edited by Smitty-48 on Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby TheAmericanNomad » Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:42 pm

You guys remember back in 2000 when everyone thought that environmentalists were the biggest threat to gas prices.


That sure looks silly now.


I can still hear them in my head "If Al Gore gets elected president he is going to make gas 8 bucks a gallon to force everyone to ride the bus!"


Who would have thought that it would be attacking the countries that control the oil that would rise prices? :roll:
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:46 pm

West Texas crude is $99 a barrel. Not even that expensive. Americans just perpetually whine about gas prices, even though they pretty much have the lowest prices in the OECD.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby TheAmericanNomad » Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:50 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:Wets Texas crude in $99 a barrel. Not even expensive. Americans just perpetually whine about gas prices, even though they pretty much have the lowest prices in the OECD.



Very true, it is all relative though. Sure pretty much every country I have been to has had higher gas prices (with the possible exception of Mexico, I can't remember) but most Americans never leave America, they are only comparing it to American gas prices from the past.

Plus we like to drive a lot, there is a perception outside of the big cities with subway systems that public transportation is for poor people. And you know how Americans, even poor Americans, hate the poor.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:53 pm

TheAmericanNomad wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:Wets Texas crude in $99 a barrel. Not even expensive. Americans just perpetually whine about gas prices, even though they pretty much have the lowest prices in the OECD.



Very true, it is all relative though. Sure pretty much every country I have been to has had higher gas prices (with the possible exception of Mexico, I can't remember) but most Americans never leave America, they are only comparing it to American gas prices from the past.

Plus we like to drive a lot, there is a perception outside of the big cities with subway systems that public transportation is for poor people. And you know how Americans, even poor Americans, hate the poor.



Oil price is down 25% from the price it was before the crash in 2008, when it was $125 for a barrel WTI. During the bubble in the last decade it spiked higher for long periods.

$200 a barrel would be good for the US. Never going to conserve, or innovate until you are forced to. That creates opportunities for new business. Creative destruction.

You want "green tech", to innovate away from big oil? Well, it's going to have to be forced by prices.

The US will boom again at some point and then you will see a sharp rise in oil prices. Economy goes up, price goes up. Economy goes down, price goes down.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby TheAmericanNomad » Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:08 am

Unfortunately you are correct, we won't work on anything else until we absolutely have to. I wonder though if that is an American condition or a Human one?
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby doc_loliday » Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:12 am

In reality I fear that we won't be able to see the folly until we have a major disruption of some kind, Navy really is only taking it to it's logical end, albeit with gusto. You voted this in, eat your supper kind of thing.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby Smitty-48 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:14 am

TheAmericanNomad wrote:Unfortunately you are correct, we won't work on anything else until we absolutely have to. I wonder though if that is an American condition or a Human one?


Well, I think everybody complains, but the US makes it like the world is about to come to an end, cause oil isn't $20 a barrel forever.

The last time oil was really cheap, was 1999.

Another thing that may be making you feel like the oil price is going up, is that your dollar has been going down

On the other hand, that promotes exports which is good for jobs and growth.

If it weren't for Europe the US would actually be rebounding big time right now. The economy is starting to come back.

The US economy is incredibly resilient on the long view. At some point, especially if Europe stabilizes, it is going to take off like a rocket ship again.

Then you will have some oil prices to complain about. On the other hand, real estate will be white hot and you will all be getting hired too, so cuts both ways.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby TheAmericanNomad » Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:17 am

I don't know, the economy is rebounding right now, and I never bought into the hype of some here that the U.S. was going to become a third world nation any moment now, but I do not think that our economy is really that healthy long term. I actually think it is more healthy short term (or I guess, medium term)

I think we will be alright for a little while, the average American still has a lot of buying power, which provides a healthy economy. However, long term the middle class is vanishing pretty fast, most of it is gone already, the new middle class is what used to be called the lower middle class, once that gets to simply poor, its over.

So long as we continue to export jobs and assuming we don't have any kind of boom sector in the pipeline (the one possible future one I can think of, green technology, China is kicking our butts in. We might someday have a green revolution, but I bet the revolution is built in China) there is really nothing to restore our middle class.

If the political class gets its act together and actually works in favor of the country rather than corporations, then we could easily bounce back. Empires aren't supposed to fall in 60 years, we are still on top of the world so we still have a very advantageous position, but we are losing it quick and I don't have faith in them to fix it anytime soon.

I don't fear ten years from now all that much, I do fear forty years though.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby Smitty-48 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:22 am

Perhaps, but if you look at the history of economic shifts going way back, so called "dislocations", everybody predicted doom, yet it didn't come to pass.

You look at the industrial revolution and everybody was saying the world was going to hell, yet the highest standards of living, quality of life, and longest lifespans in human history, beyond their wildest dreams, is actually what happened on the long view.

So, lets say you go forward 70-80 years... Americans may not be the biggest of the big, but they may be living way healthier to 120 and barely working hard by our standards, yet living spectacular lifestyles at the same time. It's all relative.

You look at 1912 and life was pretty nasty, brutish and short, even for Americans, for most people, compared to us.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby katsung47 » Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:07 pm

703. War on Iran in February (1) (1/21/2012)

In last December I learned that my brother and sisters would have a trip to India and Dubai between Feb. 2 to Feb 15, 2012. Since my relatives used to be arranged for a trip when the Feds has a new plan, that means there will be a new framed case in February and it always comes with big events as distraction- false flag terror attack, war, natural disaster or all of them.

A news proved my allegation. It will be Iran war this time.

Russian military experts say the U.S. is likely to war against Iran in early February
Date:2012-01-17
http://www.9abc.net/index.php/archives/72360


Why does the Feds choose February as operation time? Because there was a president election in Taiwan on Jan 14. National Party competed with Democratic Progressive Party for that seat. National Party is pro-China while D.P.P. pushes for independence of Taiwan. Of course, Beijing wants to see the National Party to win the presidency of Taiwan.

On the other hand, China is a key component in war on Iran. China is a big customer of Iran. It shares 20% of exported oil of Iran. China opposed war on Iran for its own interest. So if US wants the Iran war, it must buy the agreement of China. The D.P.P. of Taiwan became the chip of the deal and was sacrificed in 1/14/2012 presidential election.

On 1/10, Treasury Secretary Geithner visited China to confirm the secret deal.

1/14, Payment confirmed
Taiwan's China-friendly president wins re-election
January 14, 2012 A.P.
|

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/14 ... e-election


1/15, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao started his trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United A.E. (all are US allies) to pick up other payments from the secret deal.

China, Saudi Arabia and the New Oil Alliance - 16 January 2012
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/china_oil_011620126


1/19, China confirms the deal to turn against Iran.
China Begins to Turn Against Iran

January 19, 2012 2:26 PM
During Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to the Persian Gulf, he struck deals with a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, many of whom are worried by Iran’s nuclear ambitions. China, which has long been one of Iran’s only allies and a major customer for its oil exports, now seems to be turning its back on Tehran. From the Telegraph:

“China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons,” [Wen] said.

China appears to have sent a message to Iran that it could not rely on Beijing’s unstinting support by reducing its imports of oil at a time when the US and Europe are promoting an embargo on the country.

The Washington Post reported that China trimmed its oil imports from Iran in January from a daily average of around 550,000 barrels to 285,000 barrels a day.

Chinese foreign policy experts said the statement demonstrated that Beijing would not allow its international position to end up beholden to Iran.

http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/01/ch ... inst-iran/
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby KingKoosII » Sat Feb 18, 2012 6:07 pm

I'm not saying you're wrong katsung47, but that's a bit of a jump from the evidence you present to saying that China's given the US a green light for war on Iran. Is it not more likely that China's diplomacy is more about nudging Iran and her neighbours away from confrontation? There are events occurring in international relations every day and it's easy to correlate some into a paranoid narrative. If regional tensions escalate, it won't be because of pre-agreed deal between the powers, just things running out of control as they sometimes do.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby DeputyVanHalen » Sat Feb 18, 2012 8:36 pm

Good thing the space shuttle isn't flying anymore, or else there would be another deadly earthquake. :snicker: (You'll get it if you saw the movie)
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby katsung47 » Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:42 pm

The evidence is there:

704. Iran war (2) (1/28/2011)

Be noticed that on 1/10, Treasury Secretary Geithner visited China. I allege it was to confirm the secret deal. Next day, there was such a news:

Harper to visit China, seeking higher oil sales
By David Ljunggren | Reuters – Wed, Jan 11, 2012


OTTAWA (Reuters) - Prime Minister Stephen Harper plans to visit China next month as his government looks to open new markets for oil sands crude in the wake of Washington's decision to delay approval of a major pipeline from Alberta to Texas.
After winning power in 2006, Harper's Conservatives initially took a cool line with China and cited what they described as Beijing's poor human rights record.

http://news.yahoo.com/harper-visit-chin ... 31193.html



For the war on Iran, puppet Canada government ignores Beijing's poor human rights, now has a warm line to satisfy China's great appetite on oil.

On Jan. 18, news reported that "Obama rejects oil pipeline from Canada, triggering loud controversy". Of course, it is not for the consideration of environment as he said. It is part of the secret deal for Iran war.

All these events: Geithner's China visit, Harper's plan to visit China for oil export to China, Obama's reject of the oil pipeline from Canada, Chinese Premier Wen's visit to Gulf and new deals with these oil countries, were done within ten days - from Jan.10 to Jan. 18. The technical details must have been prepared in advance. That plan should have started from last November.

My last clear warning for Iran war date was October. see "691. October 21 plot (11/1/2011)". It signals with Harold Camping's World End Day prediction and FBI's case of "Iran plans to assassinate Saudi ambassador in US soil".

Since November, they were preparing this big one - bribe China. Part of this plot is NDAA. It was proposed in late November. When Obama signed it into law on 12/31, I wrote on 1/2, "700. National Defense Authorization Act (1/2/2012)". On point 5, I said,

"5. War on Iran is their major goal. With great possibility, there will be false flag nuclear attacks on US cities to justify the Iran war. Most people realize the truth of the 911 attack. This law is created to deal with the people who won’t believe this government anymore when such “terror attack” happens again. "

I would say my observation was very accurate. One week later, we saw all these events relate to Iran war.
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Re: Iranian Nuclear Progress?

Postby navy62802 » Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:45 pm

katsung47 wrote:The evidence is there:

704. Iran war (2) (1/28/2011)

What does that even mean? "704. Iran war (2) (1/28/2011)" WTF are you even referencing with this crap? 704? What's that? Is that a paragraph? Is that a page number? Is that a section of some imaginary legal code? What are you talking about???
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